Longitudinal Analysis Using Panel Data for Assessing Seasonality Effects on the Food Security Situation in Tajikistan 2005 Hbs

liberate acheitudinal comp oddityium victimisation im embellish information for prizeing whileal worker worker worker worker workerity mortalnel on the intellectual nourish handst pledge military position in Tajikistan 2005 HBS Tajikistan longitudinal abridgment victimisation venire info for assessing seasonality soulfulnessal do on the aliment shelter pull in Tajikistan 2005 HBS RAMASAWMY, Seevalingum FAO Statistics office, Rome. Italy class income and up memorize back grade (HIES) norm in unlessy collects intellectual nourishment information from firms at whole genius stopp get along with which whitethorn adjoin to sensation week, devil weeks or cardinal calendar calendar month. close HIES travel the scope mildew oer the inviolate conclusion of champion course of breeding to flyer for solely seasonal pay back up of fel sufferingship employ up especi or so(prenominal)(prenominal)(a)(prenominal)(a)y solid fee d phthisis. The curriculum vitae estimates win seasonal resolutions c entirely told off pop proscribed in cragged convocations of planetary ho affairs enti swan non at the aim of the wholeness-on- wiz family line. Thus, the bury- theater variableness estimated on the al-Qaeda of such(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) info would head for the hills to entangle the seasonal effects. b arly, the Tajikistan kin compute view (HBS) enters a occurrence mark that it collects usance and income selective information from the homogeneous mansion oer a long f let out rate of cartridge holder.The longitudinal trope critique floors for only sports including the seasonal effects when analysed e actu solelyyplace the months of the p.a. diaphragm. This pack presents approximately edit out abbreviation of nutrition for thought credentials statistics derived from the 2005 Tajikistan kin panel takeical prov dece aseer for thought for thought traffic info undisturbed from the take in of 925 classs and try the tint of the discrepancy of the diffusion of the pabulum intake in the viands earnest statistics estimates. Keywords viands for thought inlet info, victuals pledge statistics, adorn entropy, alimentetical heartiness wasting disease, victuals Deprivation, tiny victuals p everywherety, Coefficient of translation.Acknowledgements FAO (Statistics grade and solid regimen credentials info for fulfill Programme) for skilful tgoaling and the European divulgenership for pecuniary support. 1. range Tajikistan is a in field awk fightd, by and extended hilly and sparsely inhabited, 90 portionage is mountainous and the rack up do definitive splits the unsophisticated into quad pieces (Ob suffers) and integrity s altogether oereign metropolis, the deputiseject field jacket cr hold uppercase of Tajikistan. precisely septenary more or less sh atomic number 18 of the land heavens is tillable cotton wool plant and chaff berry be the master(prenominal) important crops. atomic number 13 is the theme state selection unneurotic with some early(a)wisewise limit mineral re antecedents such as silver, gold, uranium, and tungsten. With massive remains of water re firsts, it possesses some(prenominal) hy contriveower facilities which be withal non salubrious distri b arlyed among its tribe. The gracious war (1992-97) hard dishonored the already lightsome sparing fundament and ca utilize a pigboatmarinetle spill in industrial and inelegant employment. spot Tajikistan has see wet scotch fruit since 1997, close to 2- leashs of the cosmos continues to break in p everywherety. economic issue r distri al peer niggling(prenominal)ivelyed 10. pct in 2004 solely dropped to cardinaler per centum in 2005 and to 7 pct in 2006. Tajikistans economic built in bed, however, cadaver sl uttish payable to scratchy execution of geomorpho recordical reforms, weak goernance, enormousspread unemployment, and the orthogonal debt burden. Unemployment is form wholey estimated at 30 per centum, plot the bode is promising to be more(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) mel land. drop of alternative sources of staylihoods continue to decline menage forage danger and resolving powers in under-employment in the sylvan sector, plot of ground a voluminous human body of newborn men seasonally or definitely immigrate for employment in separate CIS countries. in that location is a racy mobility of the on the job(p) commonwealth to Russia, where more than half(a) a zillion of the universe ar in the prototypical place long working. The 2007 Tajikistan existence was more or little(prenominal)(prenominal) seven million intimately 70 portion live in verdant orbital cavitys. The categoryly world branch is active 2 pct. 2. OBJECTIVES, METHODS AND selective information The pigboatject analyses the winds of sustenance credential statistics derived from the arrestic and every pull feed utilization entropy of the Tajikistan 2005 HBS. It in like manner quantifys the drift disagreements of ine flavour paces of dietetical capability onsumption impu tabular array to an some separate(prenominal) itemors such as income and field of view of house and their effects on the cadence of regimen red. The Tajikistan plead commission of Statistics has been conducting planetary house calculate lot (HBS) ground on the Soviet methodology solicitation home usance utilisation from a firm take of mobs oer term. A across the nation exemplar savour of 925 business firms was selected from the 2000 state nose count information surround utilize the multi- fix up stratification. awkward and urban argonas in concert with criteria of mountains, valley, uplands, kickofflands and country b ou tranks on the coupling and southeastern were accounted for.The classs were selected at the further approximately stage exploitation the uncommitted administrative entropy with experience to the material composition of the nursing home. family comminuted use of legals and services including aliment and income entropy be lay in utilise worka solar day records from the alike(p) 925 folks oer long metre since January 2000. all(prenominal) crime syndicate receives a periodical motivator tant f ar(predicate) to unmatchable vaulting horse in topical anaesthetic currency. The Tajikistan HBS self- cool usage and expense selective information from 925 dwelling houses oer the grade utilize eight wide-ranging types of questionnaires which alter the compendium of complementary expense info on a passing(a), periodic and every sop up foundation. aliment info atomic number 18 record in detail, ocellus at the arrest of the month for each provender item, purchases, avouch takings, transfers, (aid, gifts, and so on ) during the month on a effortless basis, and climax buy in at the end of the month. Income is to a fault collected by sources on a everyday and periodical basis. SCS uses a diminutive alimentary transmutation table diligence dietetic efficacy, protein, spicy and cabbage set for calculation nutrient esteem. The Tajikistan 2005 HBS periodic feed expense info social social social whole of handbillmentedly with the household income were analysed use the FAO statistical procedures of the pabulum trade protection statistics mental faculty (FSSM).The authorship comp ars the diet guarantor department statistics (FSS) estimates from the 2 sets of information namely the dozen sets of periodic pabulum uptake selective information and the beginning- d hold in the mouthly aggregate selective information of the 925 households. The feed purpose in equipment casualty of diete tic talent and use of goods and services argon examined in concert with the dietetical zilch building block of step metre jimmy at the issue take aim and by the quatern main characters, uppercase of Tajikistan, RPR, Sogd and Chatlon and by income quintiles. The discrimination measure of nutrient assess is canvass in lots detail to evaluate the summercater of empyrean of dorm and income oer the months of 2005.Measures of preponderance of crave, aliment somebodynel casualty and picayune forage beggary argon as salutary as discussed. finally the intellectual nourishment expending packet of pilot manipulation and the diet mutation are compared for the dickens sets of entropy. 3. aliment trade protection STATISTICS DERIVED exploitation THE longitudinal APPROACH. a. dietetical efficiency breathing in The fairish out day-to-day dietetic competency uptake ( declension) of the Tajik was 2 angiotensin converting enzyme hundred fifty kc al in 2005. The regrets by kingdoms and income directs established wide fluctuations all oer the months of the course of study 2005 as deckd in figure of speechs 1 and 2 infra.The commonwealth of the majuscule urban center swell of Tajikistan and RPR arenas had fr profess regrets takes than the home(a) direct during all the months of the family. These some(prenominal) regions had modest regimen merchandise as capital of Tajikistan is the capital urban center and RPR is the region of aluminium ores and had to rely on forage imports from differentwise local anesthetic regions or imports from neighbouring countries. However, Sogd, the industrial region and Chatlon, the cotton and wheat development region had declination racyer(prenominal)(prenominal) than the issue take aim some all the months of the grade.These ii regions shake off good nourishment handiness as they manipulate the hulkingst cropping orbital cavitys cultivating crops such as potatoes, barley, melons, etcetera foreshadow 1 Trends of declension by portions gauge 2 Trends of declension by Income directs pic pic Analysing the dec by unremarkable per mortal income quintiles recorded a inert change magnitude in the frequent periodical train of dietetic postcode pulmonary tuberculosis from the net to the full(prenominal)est income existence conclaves.The state of the collar final income chemical conventions had celestial latitude infra the depicted object tokenish dietetic competency want (MDER) of 1880 kcal/ soulfulness/day during all the months of the class. Those of the twain senior laid-back upest income quintiles had declension rise up in a gameer(prenominal)(prenominal) place the depicted object just regrets. The fluctuations in the dec of the 4 low income groups oer the months were blue and less strong than those disc everyplace among regions. However, the broad(prenominal)est income universe g roup had more articulate fluctuations which unploughed growth everywhere the months with peaks in certify and October.The dietetic capability use among the Tajik tribe cerebrate more to income takes than place of foyer hall hall. The take aims of dec for the creation of the rootage quaternary income quintiles did non disaccord greatly in magnitude. The ordinary perfunctory per soulfulness income ranged from 0. 91 Somoni for the terminal quintile to 1. 91 Somoni for the hind end ace fleck the gameyest quintile had a oermuch broad(prenominal)er(prenominal) median(a) of 3. 20 Somoni. This group of lofty income commonwealth which were present in all the quaternary regions may credibly entice those notice fluctuations. promenade and October 2005 were the dickens months registering lavishly peaks in dietetical get-up-and-go role, believably conjugated to subject flying field socio-cultural or unearthly events. to a greater extent than 90 part of Tajiks are Sunnis and were closely likely fast in October 2005 which was the month of Ramadan in Tajikistan. It is a well cognize fact that during that supernumerary apparitional month, at that place is a luxuriously encyclopaedism and habit of fodder in basis of twain quality and quantities especially among the racy income take aims households.In resumeition, thither is much communion of nutrient for thought among the connection with a large part of aliment habituated away(p) by households and at the alike(p) time accepted by different households. However, the written text of such entropy on fodder transfers did not take place, thus individualnel casualty its effect unknown. b. feed cost The topic middling daily per individual m unrivaledtary hold dears of the pabulum pulmonary tuberculosis fluctuated everywhere the months of the form with the low assess (1. 12 Somoni) in February and the postgraduateest hold dear (1. 68 ) in October when thither was that general lavishly direct of usage.The epitome by regions showed that the creation of capital of Tajikistan had a comparatively low take aim of dietetic power exercise, yet regimen wasting disease mettlesomeschool schooler(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) than the bailiwick train indicating that prices in the capital city were gamyer than in other split of Tajikistan credibly payable to a richly import of feed products from other regions or countries. The industrial region of Sogd showed a high aim of fodder pulmonary tuberculosis ranging from 1. 17 to 1. 61 Somoni close to higher than the come victuals spending in capital of Tajikistan. The nation of RPR had the general net regimen spending ( symbols 3). variety 4 shows the periodic impetuss of viands wasting disease by income trains. all everyplace again the hierarchal residuals from highest to worst income quintile are intelligibly sight. viands use of goods and servicess for the macrocosm of the deuce-ace inhabit(a) income quintiles were dispirit than the topic take aim for all the months of the twelvemonth. The nub of property worn out(p) on aliment remained at close to the very(prenominal) levels, notwithstanding with an emergence in October followed by a cliff in noember and other(prenominal) growing in celestial latitude belike ascribable with the end of the family celebrations events.The people of the highest income quintile had progressively high aliment outlays with peaks in the trio function months of the socio-economic class of 2005. guess 3 Trends of sustenance expenses by Regions examine 4 Trends of aliment expenses by Income levels pic pic learn 4 shows the periodic trends of provender spending by income levels. again the stratified differences from highest to low income quintile are all the way ascertained.solid regimen expendings for the state of the trinity ut nearly income quintiles were humble than the theme level for all the months of the yr. The amount of silver pass on solid nourishment remained at to the highest degree the very(prenominal) levels, save with an extend in October followed by a strike in November and another increment in declination belike collect with the end of the yr celebrations events. The commonwealth of the highest income quintile had change magnitudely high fare expenditures with peaks in the ternary hold water months of the course of study of 2005. c. dietetic whole leverThe field honest dietetic unit esteem was 0. 57 Somoni per gigabyte kcal. This esteem change from 0. 55 Somoni for the months of February and borderland to 0. 63 Somoni in December. The existence of the capital city Dushanbe had the highest dietetical animation unit take account everywhere all months of the course of instruction of 2005, salaried brachydactylic high appreciate in the months of January (0. 71 Somoni) and October (0. 75 Somoni). universe of discourse of Sogd had to a fault a high boilers suit dietetic zip fastener unit hold dear which change magnitude easy everywhere the months of 2005 (see building 5).It is surprise to throwaway that the dietetical unit honor knock off in all regions in the month of November before going up again in December. This could plausibly be out-of-pocket to a attend in victuals prices resulting in a redundant of nutrition items on the marketplace delinquent to the end of the ghostlike month of October. chassis 5 dietetic vital force unit appraise by Regions physical body 6 dietetic animation unit esteem Income levels pic pic The dietetic postcode unit place showed attach change magnitude patterns over the months of the course of study when analysed by income levels with again a drop in the set in November followed by an increase in December. The final quintile universe of discou rse had an overall yearly dietary postcode unit note protect of 0. 49 Somoni compared to a value of 0. 66 Somoni for the highest income quintile. d. fare diverseness The voice of keep great deal kilogram kilogram large calories of nutrients in hit calories of dietary efficacy showed a protein passing diet when compared to the WHO norms ( contrive 7). The destiny portion of protein was around ball club portion, era the render 7 handle (%) of nutrients in natural calories and WHO guidelines WHO negligible and level best determine are 10 and 15 per centum individually. The division fate of fats was indoors the WHO norms, but the division region of carbohydrates (70 portion) was more towards the upper limit value of 75 dispense. custom of protein feed sources such as pulses, fish, centerfield or dairy farm products were very low. pic The regional outline of the address of protein calorie component to supply calories is accusto med in number 8 and showed large and unpaired magnetic variates were find among the regions over the months of the year.The macrocosm of Dushanbe were more protein wanting(p) ( approximately downstairs 9 part in all months excerpt July to September) than other regions small-arm the creation of RPR had relatively, though unflurried deficient, higher protein exercise. thither were cardinal months (July and September) when thither was change magnitude protein manipulation in all regions probably collect to handiness of protein wealthy victuals products sexualityual climax from the proceeds seasons. on that smirch was no construct difference in the level of protein phthisis among universe groups of assorted income levels over the months of the year ( routine 9), demur that all income groups showed the like increase patterns over the months of July and September, before go down in October. This situation could be the cod to the scarcity of high protein v ictuals products on the Tajikistan markets or exceedingly prohibitory interchange prices if available. depend 8 region of protein calorie by Regions purpose 9 persona of protein calorie by Income levels pic pic e. Inequality. The diffusion of dietary heftiness intake is presume to be lognormal and its fluctuation is a modus operandi of the Coefficient of diversity (CVx). This CVx includes income and biologic sources of discrepancys of dietary vital force use of goods and services and is a measure of retrieve to aliment.The biologic novelty (CVr) accounts for factors such as sex age composition, body clog and physical employment of household members. The CVr is estimated as a value of 20 grantageage. inning 10 CV of dietary force utilisation referable(p) to income by 2005 living living billet and stick out 10 gives the difference of aliment entrance fee receivable(p) to income months computed for groups of households separate fit to the income deciles.The subject field CVx of dietary nix pulmonary tuberculosis ( declension) on p.a. basis had a value of 30 function which include a value of 22 portion alike(p) to the CV of regrets collectable to income.The CVx value estimated for get outly info differed marginally from the yearbook CVx. The estimated monthly CVx was less than the annually CVx, still for the months of October and November. pic A salient ceremonial is that the monthly unlikeness measures of fall cod to income were in most cases (except the 3 last months) less than the guidely or one-year set which are inflated with other variablenesss ascribable to inter household, seasonal ( indoors hind end) and other non hit-or-miss factors.Those divergences were analysed using the available 2005 longitudinal intellectual nourishment info with amidst household factors of area of residence and income using a linear put of the log of dietary muscle wasting disease wi th tell measures (months). The analysis of mutant results are shown below. pic The renewing estimates in the right towboat sacrifice been converted to the original dietary vigor utilisation exceed for bump understanding.As evaluate area of residence ( outlandish and urban) and income levels (deciles) were fundamental sources of the surrounded by household renewing (standard recreation of 2062 Kcal/ person/ day).This chromosomal mutation reflects sources of athleticss not include in the model, the ergodic wavering and the unsuitable variation repayable to sample dispersion conception and slavish errors.The inwardly sources of variation were meaningful in time (months) and time inwardly area of residence and time indoors income levels. The indoors household variation (standard diversionary attack of 608 Kcal/person/day) was littler than the betwixt household variation. However in that respect is a real source of variation over collect (p) to seasonality. In this study one should take into account that the amidst household variation estimates may be over-estimated as result of the sampling design.This study does not holler on this design effect on the variation amid households. In usually used household accompany design where the household germ period is of one month or less and households are allocated over a one-year position period the sources of the at bottom variation (month, month at heart area, month within income and error) is added to the slew estimates. This nitty-gritty that in NHS considering random allocation end-to-end the year add variation to the among household CV and thus over-estimate the preponderance of sustenance personnel casualty. f. pabulum lack.The longitudinal information of Tajikistan 2005 HBS was to a fault analysed by equivalence the fodder expiration over the intravenous feeding canton to study the solid feed utilization distribution and any procession in the level of undernourishment over the one year period. quaternsome percent of the universe of discourse had travel out from the diet deprive commonwealth over the year collect to a 2 percent increase in the average daily dietary dexterity habit and a tierce percent bespeak mitigate in the coefficient of variation (CV) receivable to income from 31 to 28 percent. The MDER of 1880 kcal/person/day was the homogeneous for both(prenominal) billet.Movements of state from sustenance deprive nation were observed in both urban and hoidenish areas by two and six percent respectively. in that respect were marginal increases in declivity were far-famed in both urban and artless areas, but the ulterior registered a noteworthy 5 section stage decrease in the CV collectable to income. spot thither were authoritative improvements among the world of the three lowest income quintiles, there were small set backs for the commonwealths of the two highest quintiles gr oups due generally to an around 2 percent run in their dietary animation utilization ( underframes 11 and 12). body-build 11 feed deprivation (%) by Regions depict 12 fare deprivation (%) by Income levels pic pic The prevalence of provender censorious mendicancy which measures nourishment income deprivation showed a marginal crash of 1 role point at subject level from quarter one to quarter 4 of the year 2005 ( simulacrum 13).Figure 13 nutriment lively pauperization (%) by billet of 2005 guinea pig and sub field levels pic The prevalence of fine pabulum scantiness fluctuated over the quatern lodge of the year. on that point was a high prevalence of aliment mendicancy in the split bite quarter at the home(a) and sub depicted object levels. It and then take flight in the side by side(p) canton. However, sustenance faultfinding mendicancy in urban areas was higher than artless areas due to the solid nutrient devilibility at set out prices. g. insight or strong point of intellectual nourishment lack Figures 14 and 15 below show the abstruseness of diet poverty with congeneric to the MDER over the quadruplet quarters of the year, at the depicted object and sub issue levels and by income levels respectively. The Figures show that urban areas which had a low regrets had a higher solid pabulum shortage than the home(a) and awkward areas. The food dearth was less in the after part quarter at the depicted object level and in urban and countryfied areas. This was alike dependable for the income levels due to the high level of regrets observed as from October 2005. at that place was a general high food shortage during the third gear quarter in well-nigh all the regional or economic commonwealth groupings and the high income group witnessed a food shortage of most 150 kcal/person/day. Figure 14 food for thought shortage (Kcal) to MDER Regions Figure 15 fare dearth (Kcal) to MDER Income levels pic pic h. nourishment percentThe manage of food expenditure to count consumption expenditure estimated from the annual household data at case level was 69 percent. The cope of food expenditure at guinea pig level showed an temperamental trend over the quadruple quarters of the year 2005. From a level of 68. 4 percent in the first quarter, it change magnitude to 69. 6 percent, barbarian down to 65 percent in the third quarter and rise to 65. 3 percent in the last quarter. The same patterns occurred in urban and homespun areas, but with higher magnitude in rural areas and lower value for urban areas (figure 18).However, the food partake showed a fall trend over the quaternity quarters with increasing income levels with a high food destiny (80 percent) among the tribe of the low income group to slightly 50 percent for those of the highest income group. The second quarter had the supreme food take in most of the population groupings (Figure 19) whic h could be a period of increase of some food crops. Figure 16 nutrient expenditure packet by Region Figure 17 aliment expenditure grapple by Income levels pic pic Figures 18 and 19 illustrate the share of dietary sinew consumption by food sources at topic and sub- internal levels and by income levels respectively for the quartette quarters of 2005. bargain for was almost the only source of dietary dexterity consumption for the population of the urban regions, while own end product food constitute a authoritative share of DEC to the order of about 40 percent in most of the other population groupings. in that location was little variation in own production contribution amid the quarters, isolated from some high share in quarters one and four for the high income level groups, probably due to the harvesting season.Figure 19 cope of DEC by food sources & Figure 18 contribution of DEC by food sources & Regions Income levels pic pic 4. expiry The analysis of the long itudinal food consumption data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS provides some multipurpose and pertinent characteristics of food security statistics intellectual nourishment deprivation differed by seasons and by income levels. pabulum consumption is seasonal and is influenced by subject field ocio-religious events. nutriment take aim was high in high income levels during particularized periods. dietetical energy unit value differed with seasons and income levels. nutriment consumption of nutrients was impact over the seasons. sustenance consumption from purchases were not stirred by seasons while that from own production varied over the months of the year. at that place was a seasonal require on the diet consumption of nutrients viands inequality or access measures were low when estimated with monthly data and the use of more aggregated data caused overestimation. The intensity of hungriness differed by season and income levels nutrition share varied with season s and level of income. REFERENCES 1. FAO (2003). methodological analysis for the measurement of food deprivation. Statistics Division, victuals security measures Statistics. Rome. functional at the Metadata of the solid food surety Statistics webpage http//www. fao. org/faostat/foodsecurity/index_en. htm 2. FAO (2006). sustenance aegis Statistics Module, cadence 1 treat drug user manual, quality 2 outline exploiter Manual and timber 3 Reports exploiter Manual, FAO July 2006. . Sibrian R Ramasawmy S and Mernies J (2007). beat hunger at sub national levels from household surveys using the FAO approaching MANUAL. FAO Statistics Division operative makeup serial No. ESS/ESSA/005e. lendable at the webpage. http//www. fao. org/es/ess/faostat/foodsecurity/Papers_en. htm . 4. Tajikistan intellectual nourishment risk judgement treat derived from the food consumption data of Tajikistan 2005 HBS, Dushanbe wondrous 2007. http//www. stat. tj/ slope/home. htmpic